CENTRAL TEXAS — Rain-cooled air working through this morning will lead to highs in the 80s. Storm chances look to return today, with some severe. The highest chances will be in the evening.
THE BREAKDOWN:
- Shower and storm chances linger today with some strong to severe.
- Severe chances hinge on where an outflow boundary from morning storms ends up.
- Highest severe chances look to be west and south of Bell/McLennan counties.
- Forecast is very fluid and may adjust through the day. Hail, wind remain biggest threats.
We have a complex forecast setting up today across Central Texas. Storms that fired in the DFW Metroplex this morning bringing high wind damage there have pushed rain-cooled air into our area this morning. Some storms are still possible to work in behind the rain-cooled air through the middle of the day, but they will carry only a low severe weather threat.
The wild card is where this rain-cooled air stops. Behind it, we will only see highs in the mid 80s, which will provide much less energy for storms that could work in this afternoon and evening. Ahead of it will be juicy, warm air with highs in the 90s and high humidity. In this unstable atmosphere south of the boundary, supercell storms could form this afternoon capable of larege hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. North of it, hail and wind could still occur, but the tornado threat will be much lower. Right now, this looks to make it just south of Bell county, which would be great news for Central Texans. We will monitor it through the day.
Tonight, showers and storms that develop will work in from the west. Where rain-cooled air is in place, they will likely struggle to turn severe. Where it's not, high winds to 70mph will be possible along with some hail. Again, a very complex forecast that will remain fluid through the day.
Wednesday looks quieter, though some storms are still possible. Thursday and Friday should bring higher storm chances with rounds of storms expected, especially in the evening and potentially overnight hours.
The upper-level ridge will try to take over this weekend into next week, if it does, we will see storm chances decrease and highs approach the low 90s again.
Have a great Tuesday!
Meteorologist Josh Johns
25 Weather
