Typhoon Mawar is heading toward Guam with destructive storm surge, high winds and flooding rain in what could be the territory's strongest, closest strike in over 20 years.
Typhoon warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service for Guam, as well as Rota, an island about 40 miles north-northeast of Guam.
And while the Mariana Islands are in the most immediate danger, Mawar also has an uncertain future after striking Guam that could eventually pose a threat to other parts of the western Pacific Basin.
Here is what you need to know about this typhoon.
Where Mawar is now: Typhoon Mawar's center is currently to the south-southeast of Guam, moving toward the north-northwest.
Some outer rainbands well away from the center of Mawar are occasionally sweeping into Guam and the Marianas, with heavy rain and some wind gusts.
Here's the typhoon's timeline: Tropical storm conditions may begin in Guam later Tuesday, which might make final preparations for the typhoon difficult (Guam is 14 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Daylight Time).
Bands of rain will continue to push through Guam and the Marianas as the typhoon draws closer.
The closest approach of the center – and the most severe impact – is expected near Guam or Rota Island sometime Wednesday.
Conditions will gradually improve in the Marianas beginning Thursday.
Mawar will then likely intensify into a super typhoon – meaning winds of at least 150 mph – after leaving the Marianas.
We'll then have to watch when Mawar will curl to the northwest, then north, then northeast beginning this weekend.
The later and less sharp the curve, the bigger the potential threat to the northern Philippines, Taiwan and Japan next week.
People in these areas should monitor this forecast in the days ahead and be prepared, in case it eventually becomes a threat.
Here are the potential impacts: There is still some uncertainty regarding Mawar's exact path. For now, here is the latest thinking from the National Weather Service in Guam.
-Storm surge: A life-threatening surge of 4 to 6 feet, locally up to 8 feet, above normal tide levels is possible Wednesday near the coasts in Guam and Rota. Battering waves will ride atop this life-threatening surge. Lower but still significant storm surge is possible in Saipan and Tinian, especially along south- and east-facing shores.
-Destructive winds: Mawar's most intense winds – possibly over 100 mph – will be in the eyewall immediately surrounding its center, which could pass over Guam and possibly Rota on Wednesday. These winds are capable of widespread damage to trees, numerous power outages and heavy damage to weaker structures. Some typhoon-force winds are possible on Rota, and tropical-storm-force winds capable of at least some tree damage are expected on Saipan and Tinian.
-Heavy rainfall: Up to 15 inches of rain is possible in Guam and Rota, and up to 6 inches of rain could fall over Saipan and Tinian. This heavy rain is likely to trigger dangerous flash flooding and, in areas of higher terrain, landslides.
Strong typhoons are typical near Guam. According to NOAA's historical database, 17 typhoons of at least Category 3 intensity have tracked within 70 miles of Guam dating to 1949.
The last one to do so was Typhoon Mangkhut, which ran right over Rota Island, then eventually clobbered the northern Philippines and China in September 2018.
Mawar may be the strongest typhoon to pass so close to Guam since Super Typhoon Pongsona's center passed just east of Guam and hammered the island with up to 173 mph wind gusts in December 2002.
